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2013: 92% of U.S. 10 Megabit LTE From Verizon
Written by Dave Burstein   
Monday, 15 June 2009 18:37

10 megabits to almost every U.S. cellphone, Lowell McAdam promises. In four years, Verizon will bring LTE to 284M pops, 92+% of the country. Scandinavia is on a similar schedule, and I believe most of Europe will have similar announcements although they will be a few years behind. Most current carrier business plans and government policies will begin to fail in a few years.

Millions who don't need more than a few megabits will give up their DSL or cable modems. We're already seeing that in Japan and the Middle East, and a few switchers everywhere. DSL/cable/fiber growth, already slowing, will hit a wall. It will turn negative if the mobile carriers offer enough bandwidth at the right price.

  • Except for the hardest to last 5% or so, broadband subsidies such as the U.S. stimulus are a rip-off of the taxpayer unless they are providing 50-100 megabit service, including fast upstream. That's because the wireless networks will be built whether or not there's a subsidy , with AT&T, DT, FT, Telefonica and Vodafone already strongly committed. So Qwest's request for $3B to bring 7 megabit service should be laughed out of D.C. BT, facing 100 meg from Virgin in half the country and 10 meg from wireless almost everywhere, will have to build at least to the curbs (5-40 meg) or hemorrhage customers.
  • Two and probably 3 or 4 wireless carriers will be offering 5-10 megabits to 90+% of the U.S., with the added advantage of mobility. WiMAX built with subsidy money will be hurting. That's especially true if the grantee isn't also making money on voice, because their business model is probably
  • DSL's savior may be backhaul from femtocells. Femtocells can effectively double the bandwidth of a mobile system, diverting traffic from the existing towers. Incumbents with landlines will provide a femto to virtually all their mobile customers. It saves bandwidth and provides much better reception for your iPhone. AT&T already has a sample