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Four Years of Cable/Telco Battle: No Change
Thursday, 06 January 2011 23:58
Telco cable broadband totalsCable-telco market share has stayed fixed at 55:45 since the third quarter of 2006.  Cable is 10 meg and 50 meg. DSL is often only 3 meg and struggling to compete in many places, but the actual shifts have been very modest and less than I expected. That's partly because in the U.S. cable has been able to collect about a $10/month premium since DSL Hell left the telcos tarnished early in the century. It's also because both telcos and cablecos decided to price 50 meg service at twice the British/French prices of $25-45. Very few are willing to pay $99 for the speed boost, so it contributes little. One result is the 6-10 megabits of FTTN/DSL like AT&T U-Verse is holding on surprisingly well. Almost half the homes outside Verizon FiOS territory are covered with 25 megabits for TV + Internet and that build continues.
     I took four years of data from Leichtman to build the chart below.
He tracks over 90% of U.S. broadband. I don't believe the remaining 5-10% shows much of a different pattern.

Cable/Telco Battle: 2006-2010

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 Cable Total (,000) Cable Net Adds (,000) Cable Total % Cable Adds % Telco Total(,000) Telco Net Adds(,000) Telco Total % Telco Adds % Total Subs (,000) Net Adds (,000)

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 Q1 2006 25727 1407 56% 46% 20172 1658 44% 54% 45945 3066

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 Q2 2006 26933 918 56% 44% 21338 1165 44% 56% 48271 2084

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 Q3 2006 28149 1202 55% 47% 22738 1334 45% 53% 50887 2537

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 Q4 2006 29306 1157 55% 47% 24044 1292 45% 52% 53350 2463

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 Q1 2007 30752 1447 55% 49% 25457 1487 45% 51% 56210 2935

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 Q2 2007 31518 793 54% 46% 26443 924 46% 54% 57962 1718

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 Q3 2007 32626 1056 54% 50% 27538 1057 46% 50% 60165 2113

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 Q4 2007 33467 841 54% 48% 28450 912 46% 52% 61917 1752

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 Q1 2008 34658 1193 54% 54% 29456 1007 46% 46% 64115 2200

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 Q2 2008 35332 671 54% 76% 29743 215 46% 24% 65075 886

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 Q3 2008 36492 874 55% 67% 30168 425 45% 33% 66660 1299

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 Q4 2008 36937 445 55% 44% 30737 569 45% 56% 67674 1014

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 Q1 2009 37755 837 55% 52% 31512 775 45% 48% 69267 1612

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 Q2 2009 38005 249 54% 39% 31897 384 46% 61% 69902 633

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 Q3 2009 38659 654 55% 72% 32153 256 45% 28% 70812 910

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 Q4 2009 39269 600 55% 62% 32526 373 45% 38% 71795 973

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 Q1 2010 40186 917 55% 65% 32866 502 45% 35% 73052 1419

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 Q2 2010 40538 344 55% 102% 32951 -7 73489 337

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 Q3 2010 41059 527 55% 64% 33234 291 45% 36% 74293 818

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 0.52 53350 2463

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 0.53 50887 2537

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 Data from Leichtman Research, covering about 94% of U.S. landline broadband. I do not believe the remainder - the smaller companies - have significantly different trends