DSL Prime, DOCSIS Report, Fiber News, A Wireless Cloud

1) How many more homes will be reached because of the broadband plan. 2) How much will prices go up or down after the plan changes are implemented. Two simple measures of results.

There will be infinite noise about how wonderful the broadband plan is; reporters will have to work hard to determine if, as I.F. Stone taught us, "governments always lie." Fortunately, the goals of the plan are clear and any competent reporter can easily determine whether they are being achieved.

Goal One Availability: Obama during the campaign promised to make broadband available to everyone.  At the time, Obama advisers thought there was a substantial percentage of homes "unserved", with one estimate at 20%. That was three to five times as much as the real figure, as the FCC September report demonstrated.  Reaching the 3-6% "unserved" remains the primary goal.

First question to ask: how many of the "unserved" will the U.S. reach without the broadband plan?

Second question: how many more will the U.S. reach as the likely result of the broadband plan?

My guess at an answer: very little impact, unfortunately. If Julius ducks the question - almost guaranteed - the way to come to an answer is to look at the "unserved" areas and determine whether the proposals in the plan will have a big impact. Not trivial, but the information is out there.

Goal Two Affordability:  Nothing affects takeup more than the cost of broadband and computers. There's been an incredible amount of noise about other means of "demand stimulation" but when the experts look at the data they show little if any affect. Last week in D.C., I asked several experts if they had seen any evidence that factors other than price made a difference in broadband takeup; none had solid examples. "Talking up broadband" seems particularly useless after the data from the strongest proponent,  Connect Kentucky, fell apart. It turns out that Kentucky had less than the national average increase in broadband takeup during their campaign, when the availability of broadband was examined. Broadband availability went from 60% to 95%, more than enough to explain the results. I'd guess training and support would have a modest impact, but that simply isn't in the data so far.

First question: How much will the price of broadband for working and middle class families go up or down?

Second question:  How many more families will take broadband because of any subsidies included?

My guess at an answer: The price of broadband for most families will go up, not down. That amazing result comes from the probable inclusion of a "broadband tax" (USF) that will be far greater than any subsidies or reductions for the poor (lifeline). If current 15% USF were applied to broadband, that's $5-6B/year. The lifeline subsidy under consideration is less than a tenth of that. Because in practice lifeline reaches only a small fraction of the poor, the USF increase will probably have more impact even on the poor than any lifeline subsidy.