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US 2012: 4% Broadband Growth
Wednesday, 20 March 2013 23:22

 Q4 Cable +536K Telcos +72K. In the slow growing U.S. market, cable now has ~58%, a small change from the 55% five years ago. Cable is far ahead in net adds, clobbering telcos in ~30M homes with DSL that hasn't been upgraded. Telco price increases also hurt, with Verizon raising the minimum price of DSL to ~$50 and FiOS to $85. Upgraded DSL - 30M U-Verse, 7M CenturyQwest - is doing just fine so far, with few consumers willing to pay the high prices for more than 10-15 megabits. The U.S. market has three sectors. Fiber, mostly Verizon FiOS, doing well, partly aided by new customer deals advertised as lower as $85. Cablevision is losing to FiOS. 30-40M homes of older DSL, generally 3-6 megabits, is getting killed. About 40M homes - upgraded DSL/FTTN - is actually doing fine, something DC policymakers generally don't realize. Upgraded DSL, at least so far, is doing fine against cable in most market. Telus and Bell Canada most quarters beat Rogers and Shaw; British Telecom is generally beating Virginmedia. 

    Actual figures for the year include cable +2.4M to 46.8M. Telcos added a measly 300K to 34.6M. Comcast added 1.2M for the year, with over 100,000 poor families benefiting from the $10 offer. AT&T actually went -37K. Batya Levi of UBS actually predicted this decline. In Q4, Comcast added 342K, TWC 89K and  Charter 61K. AT&T was +2K as they began to resume U-Verse build and Verizon +72K. Windstream was - 2K despite new areas covered with stimulus money. Windstream and Frontier have generally not upgraded DSL and poor broadband sales will likely drag on the stock going forward. 

   All these figures are from Leichtman Research, whose data I have checked in the past with company financial filings and found reliable. 5-10% of U.S. broadband is with smaller companies, not included in these figures. There's no reason to think that would change any trends. 

2.7 Million Added Broadband From Top Cable and Telephone Companies in 2012

81.4 Million Get Broadband from Top Cable and Telephone Companies

Durham, NH -- March 19, 2013 -- Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (LRG) found that the seventeen largest cable and telephone providers in the US -- representing about 93% of the market -- acquired over 2.7 million net additional high-speed Internet subscribers in 2012. Annual net broadband additions in 2012 were 90% of the total in 2011.

These top broadband providers now account for over 81.4 million subscribers -- with cable companies having nearly 46.8 million broadband subscribers, and telephone companies having 34.6 million subscribers.

Other key findings include:

  • The top cable companies netted 88% of the broadband additions in 2012
  • The top cable companies added 2.4 million broadband subscribers in 2012 -- 105% of the total net additions for the top cable companies in 2011
  • Comcast added over 1.2 million broadband subscribers in 2012 -- accounting for 45% of the total net additions for the top providers in the year
  • The top telephone providers added 320,000 broadband subscribers in 2012 -- 43% of the total net additions for the top telephone companies in 2011
  • AT&T and Verizon added 3.08 million fiber subscribers (via U-verse and FiOS) in 2012, while having a net loss of 3 million DSL subscribers

"At the end of 2012, the top broadband providers in the US cumulatively had nearly 81.4 million subscribers, an increase of about 19 million over the past five years," said Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, Inc. "Even with the high level of broadband penetration in the US, the top broadband providers added 90% as many subscribers in 2012 as in 2011."

Broadband Internet Provider Subscribers at End of 2012 Net Adds in 2012
Cable Companies
Comcast 19,367,000 1,223,000
Time Warner 11,395,000 486,000
Cox* 4,620,000 120,000
Charter 3,978,000 323,000
Cablevision 3,055,000 90,000
Suddenlink 1,002,100 53,400
Mediacom 915,000 64,000
Cable ONE 459,235 8,153
Other Major Private Cable Companies** 1,978,000 53,000
Total Top Cable 46,769,335 2,420,553
Telephone Companies
AT&T 16,390,000 (37,000)
Verizon 8,795,000 125,000
CenturyLink^ 5,848,000 192,000
Frontier^ 1,757,000 22,000
Windstream^^ 1,214,500 6,700
FairPoint 326,367 12,232
Cincinnati Bell 259,400 2,100
Total Top Telephone Companies 34,590,267 323,032
Total Broadband 81,359,602 2,743,585

Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. 
* LRG estimate 
** Includes LRG estimates for Bright House Networks and RCN 
^ LRG estimate, does not include wireless subscribers 
^^ Windstream no longer reports the number of non-residential subscribers 
Company subscriber counts may not represent solely residential households 
Totals reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions 
Top cable and telephone companies represent approximately 93% of all subscribers

 

About 580,000 Add Broadband in the Third Quarter of 2012

80.7 Million Get Broadband from Top Cable and Telephone Companies

Durham, NH -- November 14, 2012 -- Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (LRG) found that the seventeen largest cable and telephone providers in the US -- representing about 93% of the market -- acquired about 580,000 net additional high-speed Internet subscribers in the third quarter of 2012. These top broadband providers now account for over 80.7 million subscribers -- with cable companies having 46.2 million broadband subscribers, and telephone companies having 34.5 million subscribers.

Other broadband findings for the quarter include:

  • Overall, broadband additions in 3Q 2012 amounted to 92% of those in 3Q 2011
  • The top cable companies added about 575,000 subscribers, representing 110% as many additions as in 3Q 2011
  • The top telephone companies added about 5,000 subscribers -- compared to a gain of about 108,000 in 3Q 2011
  • Comcast added 287,000 broadband subscribers in the quarter -- nearly 50% of the total for the top providers
  • AT&T and Verizon added 749,000 fiber subscribers (via U-verse and FiOS) in the quarter, while having a net loss of 799,000 DSL subscribers

"While top cable and telephone companies now account for over 80 million broadband subscribers, the industry continues to grow at a modest pace," said Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, Inc. "Over the first three quarters of 2012, the top broadband providers added over 2.1 million subscribers, compared to nearly 2.3 million subscribers added in the first three quarters of 2011."

Broadband Internet Provider Subscribers at End of 3Q 2012 Net Adds in 3Q 2012
Cable Companies
Comcast 19,025,000 287,000
Time Warner 11,306,000 98,000
Cox* 4,590,000 35,000
Charter 3,917,000 78,000
Cablevision 3,060,000 28,000
Suddenlink 996,800 17,400
Mediacom 909,000 15,000
Cable ONE 462,808 382
Other Major Private Cable Companies** 1,967,000 16,000
Total Top Cable 46,233,608 574,782
Telephone Companies
AT&T 16,392,000 (42,000)
Verizon 8,768,000 (8,000)
CenturyLink^ 5,807,000 44,000
Frontier^ 1,752,000 1,000
Windstream^^ 1,216,200 5,500
FairPoint 322,551 1,739
Cincinnati Bell 260,100 2,500
Total Top Telephone Companies 34,517,851 4,739
Total Broadband 80,751,459 579,521

Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. 
* LRG estimate 
** Includes LRG estimates for Bright House Networks, and RCN 
^ LRG estimate, does not include wireless subscribers 
^^ Windstream no longer reports the number of non-residential subscribers 
Company subscriber counts may not represent solely residential households 
Totals reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions 
Top cable and telephone companies represent approximately 93% of all subscribers

Last Updated on Saturday, 23 March 2013 00:44