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"IPv6 celebrates its 20th birthday by reaching 10 percent deployment"

"IP-V6 penetrationAdded half a percent of the Internet's users each year over the past two decades." Iljitsch van Beijnum has captured the status in a great headline. There is no unifying force that implements Internet rules. Each of the network of networks takes its time. 

While the world average is about 10%, Google's data finds the U.S. at 25%. 

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Cox Gigabit Creeps into Virginia; AT&T Counts on Halo Effect

The Halo Effect: Announce you're offering a gig to a few thousand people and a million become more positive about your company. The pr is working well. AT&T discovered signups increased across 10X or even 100X more homes than they actually reached. At AT&T, ~5% have the option - and the large majority never will.

AT&T explains to Wall Street they believe 45-70 megabits is enough to compete with cable while teasing consumers with what's mostly a token rollout.

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Possible Correction: AT&T Says "All-Fiber," Not Fiber to the Basement and G.fast

If so, my article that AT&T will use 400-700 megabit G.fast to five million is a mistake. AT&T's press release I just read (below) promises "Within 4 years, AT&T will offer its all-fiber Internet access service to at least 12.5 million customer locations, such as residences, home offices and very small businesses." It may well be that the pr people at AT&T don't understand the technology being used and much of the build will in fact be Fiber to the Basement and copper, probably G.fast, to the apartment. But if I may have an error, it's my job to issue a correction.

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Spain Leading the West with 15M Fibered Homes Passed (75%)

Flamenco-DancerFT/Orange Spain going to 10M & 14M. Without much publicity, Spain has pulled far ahead of other large nations in fiber homes. The U.S., Italy and France have passed fewer than 25%, Germany and England less than 10%.

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2018: More African, Indian Net Users Than Americans

Kai-Krauses-remarkable-true size of africa430The center of the Internet has moved South. Carter Horney of Forward Concepts has just published a Global 4G analysis with a detailed geographical breakdown. His projection for 2018 is 315M smartphone Internet users in India and 317M Africans connected. The U.S. population is 315M, some of them under 4 years old and not connecting to the net. His estimate is close to the 300M in 2017 I projected with Cisco's help http://bit.ly/Africa300M last year. 

These estimates are very rough but the trend is clear. Both India and Africa have over a billion people. $50 smartphones are affordable to hundreds of millions more than are connected today. Carlos Slim told me two years ago that $50 smartphones will connect two billion more people. He's proving right. 

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Verizon 2017?: 5-10x Faster 5G M-MIMO

Verizon and Nokia refuse to wait for 2020 for 5G. Massive MIMO promises major speed jumps in the same spectrum. Testing in 2016 for Massive MIMO, beamforming and interference cancellation. Hopes for huge speed boost starting in 2017. Think 64 antennas and 5-10x throughput. Good engineers tell me it's possible but didn't expect it so soon. At the new 5GW News: 

Verizon Ready to Try Massive MIMO and Beamforming
Nokia's Moiin Believes M-MIMO/IC from pCell is Ready
"Go Massive," Says the Texas MIMO Man - and Verizon
What the heck is Massive MIMO? What's Beamforming

DSL "Reference Noise Cancellation" from Broadcom

Confirms the importance of going beyond vectoring to eliminate other noise. Because I'm on the Advisory Board of ASSIA, I choose not to do any assessment of this competing product. The pr is below. Because there are almost no details of the product in the press release, I've also included a recent Broadcom patent filing for "reference noise technology" to suggest possibilities. 

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40 Million Comcast Gigabit Homes. Really.

jchapmanGigabit (shared) to nearly all of 53M homes and businesses. Comcast is going to upgrade 40% of the U.S. to DOCSIS 3.1, offering a gigabit. Brian's boys are going to start in 2016, probably early, and continue for another year or two. Comcast VP Robert Howald dropped a bombshell. "We're testing it this year. Our intent is to scale it through our footprint through 2016. We want to get it across the footprint very quickly. We're shooting for two years," he said in Mike Dano's Fierce Cable interview. The story was picked up by the Washington Post and a dozen others. Everyone in broadband has known for years gigabit cable was on the way and now the big papers are getting the message.  

"Shared" speeds will be 500+ megabits down 95+% of the time, I predict. That's similar to the 400-700 megabit speeds of AT&T's coming "gigaclear" G.fast fiber to the basement.

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More Articles ...

  1. England Tops in Euro Medium/fast Broadband
  2. AT&T paid $17/month extra for video (Datapoint article)
  3. Supersonic DOCSIS: 15 Gigabit Cable 2020, 50-80 Gigabits 2030
  4. Nokia Gives Half of Nokia China to Government to get Alcatel Deal Approved
  5. USA: Cable adding, telcos shedding
  6. From Lantiq: Intel deal "is great"
  7. Gigabit cable for Montreal, Suddenlink & Alaska
  8. Germany chooses 100-150 megabit 35b DSL
  9. Vultures come out on the Qualcomm-Ikanos deal
  10. $50-60M Ikanos buy brings Qualcomm into DSL
  11. Networks of the world, 2019. A first draft.
  12. 10% Speed DOCSIS 3.1 to Australia in 2016
  13. Alcatel's Weldon: Governments are splitting the broadband market. We get 11% in China
  14. Adtran hurt badly by loss at AT&T, slowdown at DT
  15. Gig for $25/month in Bakersfield, CA
  16. $40/port VDSL Baby DSLAMs with new Lantiq system
  17. Death of Gigaom: This one really hurts
  18. 10 Gig - repeat, 10 gig - to 800K apartments in Hong Kong
  19. Goodbye, Lantiq. Hello, Intel
  20. Ikanos: Still waiting on chips
  21. Obama's Seven Percent Broadband Plan
  22. Ten days to nominate DSL pioneers for the IEEE Ibuka Medal
  23. CEO: Verizon Dumping DSL for LTE
  24. HD Voice getting Golden Spike Jan 6 in Las Vegas
  25. Last Bow for "The DSL Committee"
  26. 300 Megabit 3 Band LTE in Korea
  27. $45 Billion for Spectrum? Cheap!
  28. Capex flat, not rising, across Europe
  29. Deutsche Telekom, Telstra didn't know NSA had cracked them

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